pltr stock: Earnings Season and Fair Value

Palantir's Q3: Not Just Numbers, But a Glimpse Into Our AI-Powered Future

Palantir. The name itself conjures images of crystal balls and seeing the unseen. And, let's be honest, their valuation sometimes feels like peering into one, too – a bit hazy, a bit… optimistic. But as Palantir gears up to release its Q3 earnings on November 3rd, it's crucial to look beyond the immediate numbers and see the bigger picture: the unfolding of an AI-driven revolution, and Palantir's unique role in orchestrating it.

Morningstar, with its 2-star rating, suggests Palantir is moderately overvalued, pegging its fair value at $115. Sure, that implies a hefty 62 times enterprise value/sales multiple for 2025. But are we really just talking about sales here? We're talking about a company building the operating system for the AI age, the ontological framework that connects the dots in a world drowning in data. Think of it like this: everyone's building apps (AI models), but Palantir is building the internet they run on.

The AI Orchestrator

Palantir isn't just another data analytics company. AWS, Snowflake, ServiceNow – they all have their pieces of the puzzle. But Palantir? Palantir is building the Rosetta Stone for data, the universal translator that allows disparate datasets to speak to each other, revealing hidden patterns and unlocking optimized decision-making. This machine-learning framework, this ability to identify opaque yet significant relationships, that's the magic. That's the moat. And, honestly, that’s what gets me so excited about this company.

And that moat, according to Morningstar, is narrow but real, built on switching costs and intangible assets. A narrow moat? I disagree! It's more like a rapidly widening river, carving its path through the landscape of enterprise AI. Palantir's software isn't just useful to data scientists; it's designed to empower everyone in an organization, from the CEO to the front-line worker, to make smarter decisions, faster. That's the democratization of machine learning, and it’s a game-changer.

The bears will point to Palantir's focus on Western-aligned entities, claiming it caps their total addressable market. They'll warn about the decreasing cost of AI inference and the convergence of LLMs eroding Palantir's dominance. But I see a different story. I see a company that's not just selling software, but building a new paradigm for how organizations operate, how they think, how they innovate. Palantir is selling the future of decision-making, and that market is as big as human ingenuity itself.

Palantir's financial position is undeniably strong, sitting on nearly $6 billion in cash and marketable securities with no debt. That gives them the firepower to invest in their platform, to expand their reach, and to weather any storms that may come. But more importantly, it gives them the freedom to dream. To push the boundaries of what's possible with AI, and to build a future where data empowers us all.

Of course, there are risks. Palantir's "Very High Uncertainty Rating" reflects the inherent challenges of predicting the future of AI. But uncertainty also breeds opportunity. The very fact that no one can definitively say how big Palantir's market will be means that the upside potential is virtually limitless. What happens if they crack the code to truly democratizing AI, making it accessible and valuable to every organization on the planet? The impact would be staggering—it means the gap between today and tomorrow is closing faster than we can even comprehend.

I saw a comment on a Reddit thread the other day that perfectly captured this sentiment: "Palantir isn't just selling software, they're selling a competitive advantage in the 21st century." And that, in a nutshell, is why I'm so bullish on this company.

The Dawn of Augmented Intelligence