Musk's Pay Package Approved: The Numbers Behind the Outrage

Julian Vance here. Let's dive in.

[Generated Title]: Musk's Trillion-Dollar Mirage: Shareholders Bought the Dream, But Can Tesla Deliver?

Tesla shareholders have greenlit Elon Musk’s colossal pay package – we're talking potentially $1 trillion – a figure that seems almost plucked from science fiction. The headlines are breathless, the stock price saw a temporary bump (about 3%, but let's be exact: 3.17% in after-hours trading). But let’s ground ourselves in reality for a moment. Approving the package is one thing; actually earning it is another.

The Trillion-Dollar To-Do List

To unlock the full value of this compensation, Musk needs to hit some truly audacious targets by 2035. We’re talking an $8.5 trillion market cap (currently hovering around $1.5 trillion), 20 million vehicle deliveries, a million robotaxis, and a million humanoid robots roaming the earth. It's a vision of Tesla morphing into an AI and robotics juggernaut, as one report put it. That's a hell of a to-do list.

The shareholder vote itself isn't particularly surprising. With over 75% approval, it’s clear Musk still commands significant loyalty (or at least, belief in his vision). The move to Texas, allowing Musk to exercise his full voting rights from his roughly 15% stake, certainly greased the wheels. But let's not mistake enthusiasm for guaranteed success. Tesla Shareholders Approve Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Pay Package

Here's where my skepticism kicks in. Those milestones… they're not just ambitious; they're bordering on delusional. Let's break it down:

Market Cap: An $8.5 trillion market cap implies a growth rate that dwarfs even the most optimistic projections. We're talking about outperforming nearly every other major tech company combined*.

* Vehicle Deliveries: Selling 20 million vehicles annually would require Tesla to utterly dominate the global automotive market. Consider that current global vehicle sales are around 80 million per year. Tesla would need to capture a quarter of the entire market.

* Robotaxis and Robots: The robotaxi promise has been perpetually "just around the corner" for years. A million operational robotaxis by 2035? That requires overcoming massive regulatory hurdles, perfecting self-driving technology (which, despite Musk's claims, is still far from solved), and building the infrastructure to support such a fleet. And the humanoid robots? That's pure science fiction at this point.

The "Corporate Terrorists" and the Chip Gamble

Musk has dismissed dissenting voices – famously labeling proxy advisory firms like ISS and Glass Lewis as "corporate terrorists" for recommending against the pay package. This kind of rhetoric might play well with his fanbase, but it doesn’t change the underlying math.

Then there's the whole chip situation. Musk casually mentioned potentially building a "gigantic chip fab." He's "super hardcore on chips right now." Okay, Elon, but building a chip fab is not like scaling up a battery factory. It’s a capital-intensive, technologically complex undertaking that requires billions in investment and years of expertise. (ASML, the company that makes the machines that make the chips, has a multi-year order backlog.) It's a move that would signal a fundamental shift in Tesla's business model. Why not partner more closely with Intel?

And this is the part I find genuinely puzzling. If Tesla needs a gigantic chip fab, why haven't they already secured land, filed permits, or announced partnerships with leading chip manufacturers? The silence is deafening.

Is This a Cult of Personality, or a Sound Investment?

The approval of this pay package feels less like a rational investment decision and more like a leap of faith. Shareholders are betting on Musk’s vision, his charisma, his ability to defy the odds. They’re willing to overlook the questionable governance, the outlandish promises, and the increasing distractions of his other ventures (SpaceX, xAI, Twitter… sorry, X).

But what happens if Musk doesn't deliver? What if Tesla falls short of these lofty goals? Does the stock plummet? Do shareholders revolt? Or do they simply shrug and say, "Well, it was a good ride"? Details on the consequences of not achieving the milestones are surprisingly scarce.

So, What's the Real Story?

Tesla shareholders just bought a lottery ticket. The odds are long, the payout is astronomical, and the future is uncertain. But hey, at least the shareholder meetings are "bangers," right?